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Peter Power's probability, 'a spooky coincidence'
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ian neal
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2016 10:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In terms of the odds of the timing coinciding, I have only made some rough estimate based on the days coinciding

What is unclear is what PP meant by

"... at the EXACT SAME TIME at the EXACT same places...."

If the bombs exploded at the exact same times to the hour and minute, then the coincidence becomes even more 'spooky'.
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Kristdime
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2016 10:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ian neal wrote:
In terms of the odds of the timing coinciding, I have only made some rough estimate based on the days coinciding

What is unclear is what PP meant by

"... at the EXACT SAME TIME at the EXACT same places...."

If the bombs exploded at the exact same times to the hour and minute, then the coincidence becomes even more 'spooky'.


Don't you think he just changed his story though when the obvious became clear? He did definitely confirm 'precisely those 3 stations'.
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TonyGosling
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think you have those figures wrong Ian. You can't assume terrorists would only attack central London stations. What about those near outlying barracks? Or Heathrow/ the BBC/ITV?
I' trying to come up with a baseline figure which pulls no punches on the face of what Peter Power says.
Tom Secker's calculation is simply mathematically wrong.

ian neal wrote:
Hi
Let me try to come up with a number
3/40 x 2/39 x 1/38
70,000 to 1 which let's face it is humongously long odds and certainly worthy of people's questions.

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ian neal
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 26, 2016 1:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is definitely a debate to be had about what assumptions and numbers to use

I say there are 40 'high profile' stations to use on the basis that Westminster tube is a more probable target than Cockfosters or Ealing Broadway

I admit this is completely subjective. You could easily argue there are 100 stations as central and high profile as Edgware Road or Aldgate.

The point I'm making was that even when making conservative assumptions the odds are still very long
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outsider
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 27, 2016 4:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wouldn't mind having a 5 accumulator on all the different figures!
Then PP ('Paddy' Power!) would be very hard to find!

Come to think of it, why not ask a bookie to give odds on the occurrence?

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