Banking Collapse? Coming to a Branch Near You!

WHAT: A pre-planned collapse of the US (and global) financial and economic systems. WHO: The same characters who perpetrated the original 911. WHERE: New York City & DC, of course. Plus a sideshow in Washington state. WHEN: The days surrounding September 11, naturally.

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conspiracy analyst
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Post by conspiracy analyst »

A bank a day goes bust...Where will it end? The cashless economy?
Goldman Sucks next on the chopping block.
The Banksters are short selling their assets as if it is a firesale.
They are all leaving a sinking ship hoping to escape the downward spiral.

We need to see how we travel from debt induced hypercapitalism to the barter economy all within a few years. Brown was right there will never be boom and bust. This will be worse than bust. :twisted:
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robert peston , bbc , new world order in finance

Post by dontbelievethehype1970 »

robert peston , bbc , new world order in finance

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters ... order.html
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Is it all subprime?

Post by insidejob »

Commentators are suggesting that the central banksters have lost control of their derivatives, subprime, inflation money scam. The Fed is running out of options and apart from printing more money, the banksters don't know what to do.

But I would suggest being out of control is part of the plan. As I've argued, they want people to blame neo-liberalism and a failure by central banks to regulate. They will argue that national structures don't work and so an international regulatory system is needed - the World IMF BIS Bank. BIS are making complaints about the Fed and the IMF want to investigate the US' financial system: national regulation is outmoded, they'll say.

Also, I am unclear as to how the subprime market has caused this all. The big banks like Lehman owe around £1,000 bn. Is this all poor people in the US who were conned into buying homes they could not afford? And if these subprime loans were mixed up with other loans, thus threatening the other loans, why can't they be untangled?

Something more is going on than subprime.
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Post by Disco_Destroyer »

Centralization of world banking ahead of NWO?
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Post by Linda »

http://www.davidicke.com/content/blogcategory/30/48/

The David Icke Newsletter Goes Out On Sunday

People think that a banking or stock market collapse must be bad for everybody, but it’s not. If you know a stock collapse is coming (because you are going to cause it) then you sell at the highest price, crash the market, and buy back at a few cents on the dollar. In this way, those who cause the crash can end up with vastly more stock, and thus financial power, than they had before the ‘crisis’ and they pay comparatively little to secure it. The Rothschilds have famously, or infamously, used this technique endless times and they are doing so again today.

The thing to remember about banks, as with the business and financial world in general, is that there may be many names above the doors, but there are far fewer ultimate owners and controllers. If you go high enough, at least most of them are called ‘Rothschild’. So when public and media commentators talk about a terrible time for the banking industry they miss the point. Of course, it is bad for those who lose their savings, can’t buy a home, or lose their jobs. But that, to those without access to empathy like the Rothschild dynasty, is unworthy of thought, let alone feeling.

The Rothschilds, and their associated network of interbreeding or subordinate families, own the system – the game - and however that system may re-adjust and re-structure itself from time to time the game is still theirs.

For example, Merrill Lynch may have failed, but it has been absorbed by the Bank of America, a Rothschild bank if you follow the trail of hidden ownership, and so the game just goes on under different, and fewer, names. Lehman Brothers may have collapsed, but the vultures, like Barclays in Britain, are circling the corpse to seize the most profitable assets and the game goes on. If you own the game, you always win because you make the rules under which it is played.
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Post by Disco_Destroyer »

http://blog.myspace.com/index.cfm?fusea ... 5254095407

If you think that we're not screwed by this Liar of a failed President... You're wrong, at the beginning of last week he said that the Government wasn't going to bail out Fanny Mae, Freddy Mac, and AIG. Guess what? Now we're all stock owners of a failed enterprise, Our dollars! Your money (involuntarily like our rights) is going to save a company that really needs to die, along with an economy that's build on paper, not gold. But again, like the Patriot Act, your money is the next place our government is going to strike! But hey, everything is okay, you know, vote Democrap (they're helping out here) or Reslushican (slush funders), but don't vote Independent why things could< change! But don't let me scare you, how about some sanitized news from Yahoo? We're now in last place and Monkey face George (the sudo-President) will help take care of the last vestige of our phony prosperity. But don't listen to me, read the article.think about it, First the Patriot Act, now the Financial Patriot act!

Bye bye USA our homes are now lost to the greedy and the liars in office...we had our chance to Impeach and now this President will finish us off:


By JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS and DEB RIECHMANN, Associated Press Writers
1 hour, 39 minutes ago



WASHINGTON - The Bush administration asked Congress on Saturday for the power to buy $700 billion in toxic assets clogging the financial system and threatening the economy as negotiations began on the largest bailout since the Great Depression.


ADVERTISEMENT

The rescue plan would give Washington broad authority to purchase bad mortgage-related assets from U.S. financial institutions for the next two years. It does not specify which institutions qualify or what, if anything, the government would get in return for the unprecedented infusion.


Democrats are pressing to require that the plan help more strapped borrowers stay in their homes and to condition the bailout on new limits on executive compensation.


Congressional aides and administration officials are working through the weekend to fill in the details of the proposal. The White House hoped for a deal with Congress by the time markets opened Monday; top lawmakers say they would push to enact the plan as early as the coming week.


"We're going to work with Congress to get a bill done quickly," President Bush said at the White House. Without discussing specifics, he said, "This is a big package because it was a big problem.
"

The proposal is a mere three pages long, but it gives sweeping powers to the government to dispense gigantic sums of taxpayer dollars in a program that would be sheltered from court review.


"It's a rather brief bill with a lot of money," said Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., the Banking Committee chairman. "We understand the importance of the anticipation in the markets, but we also know that what we're doing is going to have consequences for decades to come. There's not a second act to this — we've got to get this right.
"

Lawmakers digesting the eye-popping cost and searching for specifics voiced concerns that the proposal offers no help for struggling homeowners or safeguards for taxpayers' money.


The government must bail out the financial system "because if we don't, it will have a tremendous impact on American consumers, homeowners, taxpayers and the rest," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said in San Francisco.


But, she added, "We cannot deal with this unless this bailout helps families stay in their homes.
"

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev. said "we cannot allow ourselves to be in denial about the threat now facing the world economy. From all indications, that threat is real, and the consequences of inaction could be catastrophic. Every single American has a stake in preventing a global financial meltdown.
"

The proposal would raise the statutory limit on the national debt from $10.6 trillion to $11.3 trillion to make room for the massive rescue.


"The American people are furious that we're in this situation, and so am I," the House's top Republican, Ohio Rep. John A. Boehner, said in a statement. "We need to do everything possible to protect the taxpayers from the consequences of a broken Washington.
"

Signaling what could erupt into a brutal fight with Democrats over add-on spending, Boehner said "efforts to exploit this crisis for political leverage or partisan quid pro quo will only delay the economic stability that families, seniors, and small businesses deserve.
"

Bush said he worried the financial troubles "could ripple throughout" the economy and affect average citizens. "The risk of doing nothing far outweighs the risk of the package. ... Over time, we're going to get a lot of the money back.
"

He added, "People are beginning to doubt our system, people were losing confidence and I understand it's important to have confidence in our financial system.
"

Neither presidential candidate took a position on the proposal. GOP nominee John McCain said he was awaiting specifics and any changes by Congress.


Democratic rival Barack Obama used the party's weekly radio address to call for help for Main Street as well as Wall Street.


Their language reflected a tricky balance that politicians in both parties are trying to strike, just six weeks before Election Day: Back a plan that doles out hundreds of billions to companies that made bad bets and still identify with the plight of middle-class voters.


Besides mortgage help and executive compensation limits, Democrats are considering attaching middle-class assistance to the legislation despite a request from Bush to avoid adding items that could delay action. An expansion of jobless benefits was one possibility.


Bush sidestepped questions about the chances of adding such items, saying that now was not the time for posturing. "I think most leaders would understand we need to get this done quickly, and you know, the cleaner the better," he said about legislation being drafted.


Treasury officials met congressional staff for about two hours on Capitol Hill on Saturday. Discussions centered on how the plan would work, and Democrats proposed adding the executive compensation limits and new foreclosure-prevention measures. Details of those changes were not available Saturday. Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson conferred by phone for about 20 minutes in the afternoon, gauging how the negotiations were unfolding.


Among the key issues up for negotiation is which financial institutions would be eligible for the help. The proposed legislation doesn't make it clear, leaving open the question of whether hedge funds or pension funds could qualify.


On Saturday night, Treasury released a fact sheet stating that eligible financial institutions "must have significant operations in the U.S." unless Paulson determines, after consulting with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, that "broader eligibility is necessary to effectively stabilize financial markets.
"

The proposal does not require that the government receive anything from banks in return for unloading their bad assets. But it would allow Treasury to designate financial institutions as "agents of the government," and mandate that they perform any "reasonable duties" that might entail.


The government could contract with private companies to manage the assets it purchased under the rescue.


Paulson says the government would in essence set up reverse auctions, putting up money for a class of distressed assets — such as loans that are delinquent but not in default — and financial institutions would compete for how little they would accept.


___

Associated Press Writer Terence Chea contributed to this report from San Francisco.



..

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Post by QuitTheirClogs »

Mad As Hell !

Will the October Surprise be that Americans finally wake up?

Mad as hell - taxpayers lash out
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/21/news/ec ... /index.htm

Welcome to the final stages of the coup...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/larisa-al ... 27990.html

Dirty Secret Of The Bailout: Thirty-Two Words That None Dare Utter
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/2 ... 28294.html

The Mother of all Frauds: King Paulson - Hope You Like It
http://www.911blogger.com/node/17875

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MO6P_yjKFR4[/youtube]
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Post by scubadiver »

My brother was told by a friend of his that he was told in June that hedge funds were moving their money from the US and UK into Europe in September.

surprise...
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Post by QuitTheirClogs »

Update from Market Ticker

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsC2k9opOP0[/youtube]

http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=lsC2k9opOP0

Is it coming? If it happens, it will be because of what Congress DOES, not what it does NOT. WARNING: Buried in the draft revisions on The Banking Committee's web site is an obscure change to another law that allows The Fed to set bank reserves to ZERO! If this is done it gives banks infinite leverage and WILL ultimately result in the failure of our banking system.

CONGRESS and OUR GOVERNMENT GENERALLY are responsible for the credit lockup. See how and why, then MAKE THIS VIDEO GO VIRAL; we MUST stop the bailout.

http://tickerforum.org

look in BREAKING for the two referenced PDFs. They are pinned topics at the top.
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Post by Disco_Destroyer »

Just had this mailed, more from the above comentator:-
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsC2k9opOP0[/youtube]

Also posted we have:-

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uWU7bpzVuo[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ya9WnONk9Fw[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUMV3WEUerI[/youtube]

Also in my inbo dated 27th
Strange thing happened this morning...I pulled my piano out of the closet and I was tinking around with
the idea of doing this song and video....when "BOOM"..!!! All of sudden the power went out...computer shut down...etc...

I ran outside and heard a few alarms sounding off...it sounded like it was coming from the surrounding buildings around my apt building...

My thoughts were spinning for a minute or 2....
It had been sometime since I was made acutely aware of just how close we are to complete madness and chaos...

This is the kind of thing...that may very well happen....but for real.....sooner then we think.

This turned out to be a false alarm...(not a false flag)..

But...it drove a point deep into my subconsciousness....

Just yesterday the city of Seattle did a 'earthquake' drill...with those TV droning endless tones...."If this was an actual emergency..." and downtown I heard their big alarms going off...

You know...I can't recall ever hearing those before....
Last edited by Disco_Destroyer on Tue Sep 30, 2008 10:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by QuitTheirClogs »

Is something going on with the bankers?


Credit crunch banker leaps to his death in front of express train

Daily Mail - 27th September 2008
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... train.html

The City was in shock last night after the apparent suicide of a millionaire financier haunted by the pressures of dealing with the credit crunch.

Kirk Stephenson, who was married with an eight-year-old son, died in the path of a 100mph express train at Taplow railway station, Berkshire.

Mr Stephenson is believed to have taken his own life after succumbing to mounting personal pressures as the world’s financial markets went into meltdown.

New Zealand-born Mr Stephenson, who owned a £3.6million, five-storey house in Chelsea and a retreat in the West Country, was chief operating officer of Olivant Advisers.

Last year, the private equity firm tried to buy a 15 per cent stake worth almost £1billion in Northern Rock before the bank was nationalised, bidding against Virgin boss Sir Richard Branson.



Murder probe over dead bank chief

BBC - 29 September 2008
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/7642745.stm

A banking boss has died after coming to the aid of two people being assaulted in Norwich. The attack happened in the Guildhall Hill area of the city near a taxi rank early on Sunday.

The chief operating officer at Barclays Wealth, Frank McGarahan, 45, intervened when he saw the attack. He suffered head injuries and died at Addenbrooke's Hospital in Cambridge on Monday. Norfolk police have started a murder inquiry.

Barclays Wealth employs 7,700 staff in 20 countries and manages assets worth £133 billion. The bank last week acquired the private investment business of Lehmann Brothers...
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Post by truthseeker john »

Disco_Destroyer wrote:Just had this mailed, more from the above comentator:-
[youtube]http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=lsC2k9opOP0[/youtube]

Also posted we have:-

[youtube]http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=7uWU7bpzVuo[/youtube]

[youtube]http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=Ya9WnONk9Fw[/youtube]

[youtube]http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=VUMV3WEUerI[/youtube]
DD, use www.youtube instead of uk.youtube and they will inbed.
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QuitTheirClogs wrote:Update from Market Ticker

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsC2k9opOP0[/youtube]

http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=lsC2k9opOP0
Damn you must have posted this while I was still editing lol :)
'Come and see the violence inherent in the system.
Help, help, I'm being repressed!'


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Post by acrobat74 »

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/nea ... state.html
The (Near) Death of the State

by Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr.

I'm fully aware that Paulson and Bernanke have some nefarious scheme in mind to reverse the thrilling defeat of their criminal bailout package, a package shot down by independent members of Congress on both sides. But reflect for a few minutes on what it means that the House did this. It was a revolutionary act in the best sense of that term.

The entire establishment was united in favor of what was surely the most horrible and outrageous bill to ever come before Congress. The Fed, the Treasury, leadership of the Democrats and Republicans, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, all the major think tanks, most talking heads, the wealthiest corporations, important academics – in short, the whole of the power elite – were united in favor of this awful thing that proposed the following: Americans were to be stripped of their earnings and their future to prop up failed enterprises.

Forget back-door socialism: this was right through the front door. The consequences would have been dreadful and very scary. It was to be the first of many bailouts, since of course it cannot and would not work.

Bad debts can't be made good by legislation. This means that more money would be necessary, as the middle class was sucked dry by the vampire state for years to come. Deeper and deeper economic depression – a repeat of the 30s – was certain. Best to put a stop to this now.

The administration might have tried to do its wicked deeds through executive order rather than asking Congress. But there are two problems here. One is that they wouldn't be able to share the blame when the plan flops. The other is economic. The Fed and Treasury are actually very worried that they are incapable of injecting more credit into a banking structure averse to lending right now. They would rather have the congress authorize the money directly and run up the debt.

In any case, no matter how you look at it, the defeat of the bill is a victory for freedom. The defeat of the power elite is essential for liberty to thrive. For the free market to function, we need the government/corporate cabal to lose its capacity to get its way in every area of life. They need to feel fear. They need to lose security. They need to have a sense of uncertainty as to whether their every wish is our command. The House defeat of the bailout is a magnificent rebuke in that sense.

But does it mean that the economy is going to tank and we will all suffer? On the contrary, it could mean that we can begin an economic recovery from the Fed-generated bubble that should have and would have burst years ago but for artificial props by the Fed. If the stock prices of these troubled institutions can fall to where they need to be, they can be taken over, and their assets used productively and traded by the market. Once this deleveraging takes place, we will be ready for a new round of economic growth.

You have to understand how ridiculous this whole debate looks to anyone who understands the price system. Let's change the example from houses to apples to see how silly it is to suggest that falling prices can be made to rise. Let's say that the Fed created an apple hysteria that drove the price from $3 per pound to $10. Stores loaded up and even used them as collateral for expansion. Suddenly the price collapsed to $5 and finally to $2.

Now government takes notice. What can government do to deal with the problem? It can try to boost the price of apples by forcing stores to raise their prices. But what about consumers? They won't buy at $10. So the apples sit and rot. Maybe government should buy them all or force consumers to buy them. Also perhaps stores will just not buy any more at all. Government could force them to. But it can't force them to stay in business. People can always walk away. So perhaps government can just buy the stores, all in the interest of keeping the price of apples up. But it will have to buy the apple-leveraged stores at a much higher price than the market would offer, so this is a bad economic deal on the face of it.

The tangles can get ever more complicated and billions and trillions can be spent. You can put everyone in a prison camp and force people at the point of a gun to buy and sell apples at $10. But in the end, the problem is still the same: the price of apples wants to fall. Nothing government does changes that one fact. To attempt to change it is like trying to change gravity. Of course, the government’s central bank can raise all prices through inflation to the point that apples do in fact cost $10, but this is purely cosmetic. In fact, in real terms, the price of apples is still $2. It is a pointless and destructive activity to try changing this. You only cause massive damage in the attempt.

More great things happened after the bailout failed. Commodity prices including oil fell dramatically. This is a magnificent thing. Right now, consumers are not threatened by the possible failure of another paper-addicted investment-banking house. Consumers are threatened by ever-higher prices for all goods. If we are in a recession, especially if it lasts and lasts, low prices are precisely what we need to start economic recovery again.

It is not entirely clear why prices fall. It could be the worldwide economic slowdown. It could be that the markets are beginning to doubt the capacity of the Fed to actually achieve the hyperinflation that it wants, since banks have become quite risk averse. In any case, we need ever-lower prices on all things, including gas and groceries – and, yes, houses. This is the basis for economic recovery.

The failure of the bailout bill was the precondition for economic recovery. It should make believers in liberty realize that we can change history, that tyranny is not our fate, that the leviathan state can be beaten back.

Recently we have urged readers to look to books on money and banking. Now it is time to look at books like the Discourse on Voluntary Servitude by 17th century French writer Étienne de La Boétie. It was his view that the state is the least plausible institution on earth, one that would be overthrown in a day but for propaganda and ideological error. He explained all this in his book, introduced by Murray Rothbard. We just so happen to have a new edition out.

Yesterday was one of the worst days in decades for the power elite. It was one of the best for liberty.

September 30, 2008

Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. [send him mail] is founder and president of the Ludwig von Mises Institute in Auburn, Alabama, editor of LewRockwell.com, and author of Speaking of Liberty.
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Post by acrobat74 »

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c6ae1ea4-8eb9 ... fd18c.html
Financial Times wrote:The Dow Jones closed down 777.7 points, its biggest one-day point decline ever.
The sick homicidal elitist-wannabes like to fool around with emergency numbers and the like...

But She moves in mysterious ways...;)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQr4Hbr4cGs[/youtube]
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Off the TV: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4szU19bQVE
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Max Keiser -- Bananas, Toilet Paper and Controlled Demolition

Videos from around a week ago

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMUN9I0VMok[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kvv_5Q4EfNI[/youtube]
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Post by conspiracy analyst »

The $55 trillion question

The financial crisis has put a spotlight on the obscure world of credit default swaps - which trade in a vast, unregulated market that most people haven't heard of and even fewer understand. Will this be the next disaster?
By Nicholas Varchaver, senior editor and Katie Benner, writer-reporter
September 30, 2008: 5:38 AM ET

AMERICA'S MONEY CRISIS

* No bailout, here's Plan B
* The $55 trillion question
* Stock rally speeds up
* Genworth soars on possible spin off
* The economy's 3 vicious cycles

o Fortune

(Fortune Magazine) -- If Hieronymus Bosch were alive today to paint a triptych called "The Garden of Mortgage Delights," we'd recognize most of the characters in the bacchanalia and its hellish aftermath. Looming largest, of course, would be the Luciferian figures of Greed and Excessive Debt. Scurrying throughout would be the Wall Street bankers who turned these burgeoning debts into exotic securities with tangled structures and soporific acronyms - CDO, MBS, ABS - that concealed the dangers within. Needless to say, we'd see the smooth-tongued emissaries of the credit-rating agencies assuring people that assets of lead could indeed be transformed into investments of gold. Finally, somewhere past the feckless Fannie Mae executives and the dozing politicians, one final figure would lurk in the shadows: a hulking and barely recognizable monster known as Credit Default Swaps.

CDS are no mere artist's fancy. In just over a decade these privately traded derivatives contracts ballooned from nothing into a $54.6 trillion market. CDS are the fastest-growing major type of financial derivatives. More important, they've played a critical role in the unfolding financial crisis. First, by ostensibly providing "insurance" on risky mortgage bonds, they encouraged and enabled reckless behavior during the housing bubble. "If CDS had been taken out of play, companies would've said, 'I can't get this [risk] off my books,'" says Michael Greenberger, a University of Maryland law professor and former director of trading and markets at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. "If they couldn't keep passing the risk down the line, those guys would've been stopped in their tracks. The ultimate assurance for issuing all this stuff was, 'It's insured.'" Second, terror at the potential for a financial Ebola virus radiating out from a failing institution and infecting dozens or hundreds of other companies - all linked to one another by CDS and other instruments - was a major reason that regulators stepped in to bail out Bear Stearns and buy out AIG (AIG, Fortune 500), whose calamitous descent itself was triggered by losses on its CDS contracts (see "Hank's Last Stand").

And the fear of a CDS catastrophe still haunts the markets. For starters, nobody knows how federal intervention might ripple through this chain of contracts. And meanwhile, as we'll see, two fundamental aspects of the CDS market - that it is unregulated, and that almost nothing is disclosed publicly - may be about to change. That adds even more uncertainty to the equation. "The big problem is that here are all these public companies - banks and corporations - and no one really knows what exposure they've got from the CDS contracts," says Frank Partnoy, a law professor at the University of San Diego and former Morgan Stanley derivatives salesman who has been writing about the dangers of CDS and their ilk for a decade. "The really scary part is that we don't have a clue." Chris Wolf, a co-manager of Cogo Wolf, a hedge fund of funds, compares them to one of the great mysteries of astrophysics: "This has become essentially the dark matter of the financial universe."

***

AT FIRST GLANCE, credit default swaps don't look all that scary. A CDS is just a contract: The "buyer" plunks down something that resembles a premium, and the "seller" agrees to make a specific payment if a particular event, such as a bond default, occurs. Used soberly, CDS offer concrete benefits: If you're holding bonds and you're worried that the issuer won't be able to pay, buying CDS should cover your loss. "CDS serve a very useful function of allowing financial markets to efficiently transfer credit risk," argues Sunil Hirani, the CEO of Creditex, one of a handful of marketplaces that trade the contracts.

Because they're contracts rather than securities or insurance, CDS are easy to create: Often deals are done in a one-minute phone conversation or an instant message. Many technical aspects of CDS, such as the typical five-year term, have been standardized by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA). That only accelerates the process. You strike your deal, fill out some forms, and you've got yourself a $5 million - or a $100 million - contract.

And as long as someone is willing to take the other side of the proposition, a CDS can cover just about anything, making it the Wall Street equivalent of those notorious Lloyds of London policies covering Liberace's hands and other esoterica. It has even become possible to purchase a CDS that would pay out if the U.S. government defaults. (Trust us when we say that if the government goes under, trying to collect will be the least of your worries.)

You can guess how Wall Street cowboys responded to the opportunity to make deals that (1) can be struck in a minute, (2) require little or no cash upfront, and (3) can cover anything. Yee-haw! You can almost picture Slim Pickens in Dr. Strangelove climbing onto the H-bomb before it's released from the B-52. And indeed, the volume of CDS has exploded with nuclear force, nearly doubling every year since 2001 to reach a recent peak of $62 trillion at the end of 2007, before receding to $54.6 trillion as of June 30, according to ISDA.

Take that gargantuan number with a grain of salt. It refers to the face value of all outstanding contracts. But many players in the market hold offsetting positions. So if, in theory, every entity that owns CDS had to settle its contracts tomorrow and "netted" all its positions against each other, a much smaller amount of money would change hands. But even a tiny fraction of that $54.6 trillion would still be a daunting sum.

The credit freeze and then the Bear disaster explain the drop in outstanding CDS contracts during the first half of the year - and the market has only worsened since. CDS contracts on widely held debt, such as General Motors' (GM, Fortune 500), continue to be actively bought and sold. But traders say almost no new contracts are being written on any but the most liquid debt issues right now, in part because nobody wants to put money at risk and because nobody knows what Washington will do and how that will affect the market. ("There's nothing to do but watch Bernanke on TV," one trader told Fortune during the week when the Fed chairman was going before Congress to push the mortgage bailout.) So, after nearly a decade of exponential growth, the CDS market is poised for its first sustained contraction.

***

ONE REASON THE MARKET TOOK OFF is that you don't have to own a bond to buy a CDS on it - anyone can place a bet on whether a bond will fail. Indeed the majority of CDS now consists of bets on other people's debt. That's why it's possible for the market to be so big: The $54.6 trillion in CDS contracts completely dwarfs total corporate debt, which the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association puts at $6.2 trillion, and the $10 trillion it counts in all forms of asset-backed debt. "It's sort of like I think you're a bad driver and you're going to crash your car," says Greenberger, formerly of the CFTC. "So I go to an insurance company and get collision insurance on your car because I think it'll crash and I'll collect on it." That's precisely what the biggest winners in the subprime debacle did. Hedge fund star John Paulson of Paulson & Co., for example, made $15 billion in 2007, largely by using CDS to bet that other investors' subprime mortgage bonds would default.

So what started out as a vehicle for hedging ended up giving investors a cheap, easy way to wager on almost any event in the credit markets. In effect, credit default swaps became the world's largest casino. As Christopher Whalen, a managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics, observes, "To be generous, you could call it an unregulated, uncapitalized insurance market. But really, you would call it a gaming contract."

There is at least one key difference between casino gambling and CDS trading: Gambling has strict government regulation. The federal government has long shied away from any oversight of CDS. The CFTC floated the idea of taking an oversight role in the late '90s, only to find itself opposed by Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan and others. Then, in 2000, Congress, with the support of Greenspan and Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, passed a bill prohibiting all federal and most state regulation of CDS and other derivatives. In a press release at the time, co-sponsor Senator Phil Gramm - most recently in the news when he stepped down as John McCain's campaign co-chair this summer after calling people who talk about a recession "whiners" - crowed that the new law "protects financial institutions from over-regulation ... and it guarantees that the United States will maintain its global dominance of financial markets." (The authors of the legislation were so bent on warding off regulation that they had the bill specify that it would "supersede and preempt the application of any state or local law that prohibits gaming ...") Not everyone was as sanguine as Gramm. In 2003 Warren Buffett famously called derivatives "financial weapons of mass destruction."

***

THERE'S ANOTHER BIG difference between trading CDS and casino gambling. When you put $10 on black 22, you're pretty sure the casino will pay off if you win. The CDS market offers no such assurance. One reason the market grew so quickly was that hedge funds poured in, sensing easy money. And not just big, well-established hedge funds but a lot of upstarts. So in some cases, giant financial institutions were counting on collecting money from institutions only slightly more solvent than your average minimart. The danger, of course, is that if a hedge fund suddenly has to pay off on a lot of CDS, it will simply go out of business. "People have been insuring risks that they can't insure," says Peter Schiff, the president of Euro Pacific Capital and author of Crash Proof, which predicted doom for Fannie and Freddie, among other things. "Let's say you're writing fire insurance policies, and every time you get the [premium], you spend it. You just assume that no houses are going to burn down. And all of a sudden there's a huge fire and they all burn down. What do you do? You just close up shop."
NEXT: Derivatives, pg. 2
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Post by Disco_Destroyer »

unregulated market that most people haven't heard of and even fewer understand. Will this be the next disaster?
Kind of convenient from a spreading fear/terror kind of perspective :roll:
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Bush implores Congress for a $700 billion bailout

Post by truthseeker john »

Bush implores Congress to act to rescue markets with a $700 billion bailout. See the toad’s face and hear his pathetic croaking here:
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/ ... 0&src=news

Makes me want to puke.
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Post by Linda »

Bush is a squirming WORM with bulging pockets at the tax payers expense.
He don't give a damn about the American economy or the poverty stricken citizens of the USA. His face says it all.
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Post by item7 »

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=096_1222744802
Huge anti bailout protest on Wall Street subject to mainstream media BLACKOUT!

Thousands of protestors demonstrated agains the proposed $700 Billion bail out plan for the finance and banking industry, yet the national news media in America didn't even report it! Why not? It seems strange that this barely generated a gander from the big news outlets like ABC, CNN, CBS, NBC etc. all of whom have a presence in New York City. Despite having such a large protest event occurring i More..n their backyard, the major news media chose not to tell the American people about it. I had to stumble upon this on the internet to find out about it. That's really indicative of the pathetic state of affairs in the U.S. media today.

The bailout is a colossal power grab and fraud completely lacking of oversight or transparency that will do nothing to restore the integrity of the financial and equity markets. It is designed to benefit only the engineers and creators of this crisis at a cost of potentially trillions of dollars to the taxpayer.

Go to www.fedupusa.com for more information on the bailout and what it truly represents.
Last edited by item7 on Thu Oct 02, 2008 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by conspiracy analyst »

Betting against Uncle Sam
In debt markets, the cost of buying insurance against a U.S. default is rising.

By Nick Varchaver, senior editor
Last Updated: October 1, 2008: 12:12 PM ET

AMERICA'S MONEY CRISIS

* The accounting rule you should care about
* Slow sales? No credit? No problem
* Warren Buffett to invest in GE
* Car dealers face the grim reaper
* U.S. auto sales plunge


NEW YORK (Fortune) -- What odds would you lay that Uncle Sam is going to be a deadbeat?

Until a few weeks ago, that sounded like a ludicrous question. And even amidst bailout insanity, the market has shown that the vast majority of investors still hold the view that U.S. Treasury bonds are the safest of safe havens, the kind of investment you'd bring into your bunker in the event of a nuclear attack.

But a few skeptics are willing to put their money where their doubts are.

One day after the failure to pass a Wall Street bailout plan sent the bond market into convulsions, skittishness about Uncle Sam's prospects was felt in the market for credit default swaps, insurance-like contracts in which buyers pay a premium and sellers agree to compensate them in the event of a specified event - most often the default of a bond.

In New York trading Tuesday, prices rose to a record 31.3 basis points (each basis point is 1/100 of a percentage point) to "insure" Treasury debt, compared to as little as 7.5 basis points in January, according to information provided by CMA DataVision.

In other words, it would've cost you $7,500 per year to protect $10 million in Treasury bonds in January - but $31,300 today. Of course, even the latter figure remains negligible compared to, say, the $2 million up front - plus $500,000 per year - that you would have needed to pay for the same amount of default swap protection on Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) bonds when the firm was under fire two weeks ago. But the increase is telling nonetheless.
A wild market

Credit default swaps are a wild, unregulated market - see "The $55 Trillion Question" - in which participants make bets on the failure of corporate bonds, municipal bonds and, yes, U.S. government bonds.

Default swaps on U.S. bonds have been bought and sold for at least four years, says Simon Mott of CMA DataVision. But the market is still little known. One prominent trader in U.S. debt, when asked about swaps on Treasurys, expressed surprise and started asking co-workers, "Did you guys know that there are credit default swaps on U.S. bonds"? (The other traders seemed to know, though one could be heard saying "it's the biggest joke" in the background.) U.S. government issues are not the only sovereign debt covered by swaps. Large banks such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) will match swap buyers and sellers for, say, U.K. debt or Icelandic government bonds.

Prices on U.S. government swaps may have peaked - at least for a day or two. The underlying market for U.S. bonds seemed to be stabilizing Tuesday, according to Tom di Galoma, the head of U.S. Treasurys trading at Jefferies & Co., as investors began anticipating that the government will provide some form of relief for the holders of toxic mortgage debt would pass. "We've seen the low in yields," di Galoma says. "Who else can go out of business at this point?"

Of course, if the past month has taught investors anything, it's how unsettling the answer to that question can be. But the U.S. failing to make its payments? Now that would be a shocker (yes, a Moody's spokesman confirms that it re-affirmed the U.S. government's AAA rating last week). And if it did, the swap player who bet the right way may not feel much like celebrating. To top of page
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Post by TonyGosling »

Not a single item on the Credit Crunch and/or Global Financial Crisis has mentioned the War of Terror which has caused it and is an integral part of it.
This is not stupidity but cowardice and censorship of the highest order.
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Post by acrobat74 »

TonyGosling wrote:Not a single item on the Credit Crunch and/or Global Financial Crisis has mentioned the War of Terror which has caused it and is an integral part of it.
Can you explain this please Tony?
How has the 'war on terror' caused the credit crunch?
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Post by conspiracy analyst »

I think he means the fact that stocks were crashing just before the pre-arranged provocation regarding the fall of the twin towers.

Subsequent to this collapse and the blaming of Bin Laden, Bush dropped interest rates down to almost zero, causing a massive credit expansion to get the American population to 'feel good' whilst at the same time they were going for broke in new wars abroad.

The wars abroad were finally the straw that broke the camels back...
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Post by acrobat74 »

Well it was Greenspan rather, but I guess you're suggesting collaboration.
A good hypothesis, I forgot about this angle.

Certainly when you put together the bits and pieces that emerge about how this administration handled the looming crisis, and you put them next to 9/11, a bigger pattern emerges.

With a Goldman Sachs ex-chairman as Treasury Secretary. Who's playing clueless about the implications of the predatory lending practices...after his organization practically invented these securities.

Please note, however, that again it was the individual that could have stood up to this whole thing by not borrowing ridiculously.

I don't buy the 'they were suckered into these loans' argument. Why were they suckers in the first place?
Again, it was the individual that faltered. When will we stop being bloody monkeys in a herd?
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Post by truthseeker john »

Linda wrote:Bush is a squirming WORM with bulging pockets at the tax payers expense.
He don't give a damn about the American economy or the poverty stricken citizens of the USA. His face says it all.
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Post by item7 »

acrobat74 wrote:Please note, however, that again it was the individual that could have stood up to this whole thing by not borrowing ridiculously.

I don't buy the 'they were suckered into these loans' argument. Why were they suckers in the first place?
Again, it was the individual that faltered. When will we stop being bloody monkeys in a herd?
You are supposed to think exactly that. They are blaming the American people for the crisis when the sub-prime mortgages makes up a tiny fraction of the problem. It is derivatives and massive fraud on the part of the rich bankers which has created the problem. It is deliberate and pre-planned. It is how they get all the real wealth. As usual their bought and paid for media blames patsies repeatedly - in this case ordinary Americans.
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Post by acrobat74 »

item7 wrote:...the sub-prime mortgages makes up a tiny fraction of the problem
I see your point about derivatives, however Fannie and Freddie would find it hard to agree with the above statement.
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Post by conspiracy analyst »

Merkel guarantees German savings
Chancellor Angela Merkel
Chancellor Merkel said 'irresponsible' managers should be held accountable

Germany will guarantee all private savings accounts, says Chancellor Angela Merkel, as a major bank struggles to stay in business.

Ms Merkel was speaking after an emergency meeting with the central bank and financial regulator.

Hypo Real Estate, Germany's second biggest commercial property lender, is in trouble after a 35bn euro ($48bn; £27.2bn) rescue plan collapsed.
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